1996 — Digital Infrastructure

Theme: Information → networked → scalable

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Presidential Terms

1996–2008

Bill Clinton

1996–2000Term 2

George W. Bush

2000–2004Term 1

George W. Bush

2004–2008Term 2

1996 — Digital Infrastructure

Theme: Information → networked → scalable

Previous cycle: Credit Expansion (1984-1996)

What changed

  • Internet, PCs, enterprise software
  • Supply chains digitized
  • Capital allocation speeds up

System effect

  • Productivity actually rises (rare!)
  • Winner-take-most dynamics emerge
  • Intangibles start to matter more than plant & equipment

Why it matters

This cycle builds the rails: Capital, labor, and ideas can now move at network speed.

This sets up the tech run — but doesn't complete it yet.

System Anchor

  • •Internet protocols standardized
  • •Network-native software
  • •Electronic capital markets

Core Themes

  • •Network Effects
  • •Software as Capital
  • •Scale Dominance

Capital Behavior

  • •Capital chases scale, not profits
  • •Winner-take-most logic
  • •Optionality > cash flow

Best Performing Assets

  • •Technology equities
  • •Software & platform companies
  • •Venture capital

Hidden Risk

  • Extreme concentration
  • Narrative-driven valuations
  • Fragile unit economics