MARKET SIGNALS
Hierarchical framework for market conditions
Risk-Off / Defensive
Signals indicating elevated risk or unfavorable conditions
1
Priority
System Stress
Financial system unanchored → Gold / real assets
Trigger:
Real 10Y < -0.5%2
Priority
Negative Real Earnings Yield
Multi-LevelMulti-level equity valuation signal (Warning / Sell / Exit)
Trigger:
Real EY < +0.5% / -1% / -2%3
Priority
Equity Danger
Liquidity broken → Bonds or gold
Trigger:
EYP < -1% AND Yield Curve < 0%Risk-On / Constructive
Signals indicating favorable conditions for risk assets