COCKPIT
Data as of Apr 30, 2026 • S&P 500: 7,209
Monthly — Last Close
Active Regime — Monthly
Apr 30, 2026
Long Duration
Equities overvalued relative to bonds - duration growth
Negative equity risk premium - investors buying duration/growth
Since Oct 2023
30mo
Regime Proximity
Overvaluation
88%
Bond Stress
33%
Signals
Bond Stress
Real EY WarningRISK-OFF
Real EY Sell
Equity Danger
Growth Signal
Equity Value
Liquidity
Expansionary Liquidity
Real 3MApr 2026
0.7%P48
Real 10YApr 2026
1.5%P40
Yield CurveApr 2026
0.8%P35
Real M2Feb 2026
2.6%P45
Valuation
Very Expensive
EYP 5yrApr 2026
-0.9%P28
Real EY 5yrApr 2026
-0.2%P15
PE 5yrApr 2026
36.8xP98
EY 5yrApr 2026
2.7%P2
Price Environment
Target Inflation
CPI YoYApr 2026
2.9%P54
Fed FundsApr 2026
3.6%P45
Trend Pressure
Uptrend
Mid Pressure
StageLate
RiskDistribution
200MA Slope0.072
Divergence7.2%
Active Signal
Real EY Warning—Real EY: -0.15% (trigger: < +0.5%)