Historical Analysis

Decade-End Regime Levels

Macro regime levels at the end of each decade (December 31st)

Level Definitions

Inflation

LOW: < 3%

MID: 3-6%

HIGH: > 6%

Bond Yield

LOW: < 2%

MID: 2-5%

HIGH: > 5%

Real 10Y Yield

LOW: < 0%

MID: 0-2%

HIGH: > 2%

Fed Funds

LOW: < 2%

MID: 2-4%

HIGH: > 4%

Yield Curve (10Y - 3M)

INV: < -0.5%

FLAT: -0.5 to 0.5%

STEEP: > 0.5%

P/E 5yr

CHEAP: < 15x

FAIR: 15-20x

EXP: > 20x

EY Premium 5yr

HIGH: > 6.67%

MID: 5-6.67%

LOW: < 5%

Real EY 5yr

HIGH: > 6.67%

MID: 5-6.67%

LOW: < 5%

Decade	Year	Outlier 1	Outlier 2	Inflation	Fed Funds	10Y Yield	Real 10Y	Yield Curve 10Y − 3M	P/E 5yr	EY Premium 5yr 1/PE5yr − 3M	Real EY 5yr EY5yr − CPI
1960s (mid)	1964	Fed Funds3.9%96th pct	P/E 5yr23.6x95th pct	LOW1.0%14th pct	MID3.9%96th pct	MID4.2%78th pct	HIGH3.0%69th pct	MID+0.34%23th pct	HIGH23.6x95th pct	LOW0.41%44th pct	LOW3.27%69th pct
1960s	1969	10Y Yield7.7%99th pct	Fed Funds9.0%98th pct	HIGH6.2%84th pct	HIGH9.0%98th pct	HIGH7.7%99th pct	MID1.8%46th pct	MID-0.16%11th pct	MID17.1x54th pct	LOW-1.96%16th pct	LOW-0.34%24th pct
1970s (mid)	1974	Real 10Y-4.7%1th pct	Inflation12.3%98th pct	HIGH12.3%98th pct	HIGH8.5%87th pct	HIGH7.4%90th pct	LOW-4.7%1th pct	MID+0.28%21th pct	LOW10.5x22th pct	LOW2.37%60th pct	LOW-2.82%3th pct
1970s	1979	Fed Funds13.8%100th pct	Inflation13.3%99th pct	HIGH13.3%99th pct	HIGH13.8%100th pct	HIGH10.4%99th pct	LOW-2.9%5th pct	LOW-1.65%1th pct	LOW10.3x13th pct	LOW-2.29%5th pct	LOW-3.55%2th pct
1980s (mid)	1984	Real 10Y7.5%98th pct	Yield Curve3.4%96th pct	MID3.9%71th pct	HIGH8.4%74th pct	HIGH11.5%84th pct	HIGH7.5%98th pct	HIGH+3.44%96th pct	LOW11.5x38th pct	LOW0.64%39th pct	LOW4.75%81th pct
1980s	1989	EYP 5yr-2.5%8th pct	Yield Curve0.2%18th pct	MID4.6%76th pct	HIGH8.4%73th pct	HIGH7.8%56th pct	HIGH3.2%72th pct	MID+0.21%18th pct	MID19.5x73th pct	LOW-2.50%8th pct	LOW0.48%31th pct
1990s (mid)	1994	P/E 5yr22.3x92th pct	Real 10Y5.2%92th pct	LOW2.7%43th pct	HIGH5.5%55th pct	HIGH7.8%57th pct	HIGH5.2%92th pct	HIGH+2.21%70th pct	HIGH22.3x92th pct	LOW-1.10%22th pct	LOW1.82%52th pct
1990s	1999	P/E 5yr38.9x99th pct	EYP 5yr-2.6%5th pct	LOW2.7%45th pct	HIGH5.3%54th pct	HIGH6.3%34th pct	HIGH3.6%78th pct	HIGH+1.07%41th pct	HIGH38.9x99th pct	LOW-2.62%5th pct	LOW-0.11%17th pct
2000s (mid)	2004	P/E 5yr29.5x93th pct	10Y Yield4.2%11th pct	MID3.3%60th pct	MID2.2%12th pct	MID4.2%11th pct	MID0.9%28th pct	HIGH+2.05%66th pct	HIGH29.5x93th pct	LOW1.21%56th pct	LOW0.13%19th pct
2000s	2009	Fed Funds0.1%0th pct	EYP 5yr5.1%98th pct	LOW2.7%48th pct	LOW0.1%0th pct	MID3.6%3th pct	MID0.8%27th pct	HIGH+3.54%98th pct	MID19.6x62th pct	MID5.05%98th pct	LOW2.37%62th pct
2010s (mid)	2014	10Y Yield2.2%3th pct	Fed Funds0.1%4th pct	LOW0.8%7th pct	LOW0.1%4th pct	MID2.2%3th pct	MID1.6%41th pct	HIGH+2.19%69th pct	HIGH24.0x76th pct	LOW4.15%95th pct	LOW3.41%77th pct
2010s	2019	10Y Yield1.9%3th pct	P/E 5yr29.8x95th pct	LOW2.3%38th pct	LOW1.6%19th pct	LOW1.9%3th pct	LOW-0.5%12th pct	MID+0.34%23th pct	HIGH29.8x95th pct	LOW1.84%65th pct	LOW1.07%33th pct
2020s (mid)	2024	P/E 5yr35.6x98th pct	Real EY 5yr-0.1%15th pct	LOW2.9%50th pct	HIGH4.5%53th pct	MID4.4%37th pct	MID1.5%40th pct	MID+0.14%15th pct	HIGH35.6x98th pct	LOW-1.44%16th pct	LOW-0.08%15th pct
Latest	Now	P/E 5yr36.8x98th pct	Real EY 5yr-0.2%15th pct	LOW2.9%54th pct	MID3.6%45th pct	MID4.4%38th pct	MID1.5%40th pct	HIGH+0.80%35th pct	HIGH36.8x98th pct	LOW-0.87%28th pct	LOW-0.15%15th pct

📊 Key Observations

• 1970s: High inflation era with elevated bond yields
• 1980s-1990s: Disinflation period with declining rates
• 2000s-2010s: ZIRP environment with low inflation
• 2020s: Return of inflation and rate normalization

💡 Framework Note

This view shows only the level dimension of the regime framework. The full framework includes both level and direction (falling/stable/rising) to create a 3×3 matrix for each measure. Historical analysis of directional trends requires comparing values over time windows.

12-Year Cycle Analysis

12-Year Cycle Matrix Levels

Macro regime levels at the end of each 12-year cycle (starting from 1948)

Cycle	Year	Outlier 1	Outlier 2	Inflation	Fed Funds	10Y Yield	Real 10Y	Yield Curve 10Y − 3M	P/E 5yr	EY Premium 5yr 1/PE5yr − 3M	Real EY 5yr EY5yr − CPI
1948-1959 (mid)	1953	Real EY 5yr9.3%97th pct	Inflation0.7%7th pct	LOW0.7%7th pct	-—	-—	-—	-—	LOW10.0x18th pct	-—	HIGH9.29%97th pct
1948-1959	1959	Fed Funds4.0%97th pct	Real EY 5yr3.8%85th pct	LOW1.7%21th pct	MID4.0%97th pct	-—	-—	-—	MID18.2x82th pct	-—	LOW3.76%85th pct
1960-1971 (mid)	1965	Fed Funds4.3%99th pct	10Y Yield4.6%98th pct	LOW1.9%30th pct	HIGH4.3%99th pct	MID4.6%98th pct	HIGH2.7%63th pct	MID+0.23%19th pct	HIGH23.7x92th pct	LOW-0.17%37th pct	LOW2.29%62th pct
1960-1971	1971	P/E 5yr18.5x75th pct	10Y Yield5.9%73th pct	MID3.3%59th pct	HIGH4.1%45th pct	HIGH5.9%73th pct	HIGH2.7%62th pct	HIGH+1.92%64th pct	MID18.5x75th pct	LOW1.40%56th pct	LOW2.14%56th pct
1972-1983 (mid)	1977	P/E 5yr11.0x6th pct	EYP 5yr3.1%88th pct	HIGH6.7%88th pct	HIGH6.6%87th pct	HIGH7.7%87th pct	MID1.0%31th pct	HIGH+1.62%57th pct	LOW11.0x6th pct	LOW3.06%88th pct	LOW2.43%72th pct
1972-1983	1983	Real 10Y8.0%98th pct	10Y Yield11.8%90th pct	MID3.8%68th pct	HIGH9.5%84th pct	HIGH11.8%90th pct	HIGH8.0%98th pct	HIGH+2.83%86th pct	LOW11.7x29th pct	LOW-0.41%33th pct	LOW4.79%88th pct
1984-1995 (mid)	1989	EYP 5yr-2.5%8th pct	Yield Curve0.2%18th pct	MID4.6%76th pct	HIGH8.4%73th pct	HIGH7.8%56th pct	HIGH3.2%72th pct	MID+0.21%18th pct	MID19.5x73th pct	LOW-2.50%8th pct	LOW0.48%31th pct
1984-1995	1995	P/E 5yr26.8x99th pct	EYP 5yr-1.4%16th pct	LOW2.5%41th pct	HIGH5.6%55th pct	HIGH5.7%20th pct	HIGH3.2%72th pct	HIGH+0.56%28th pct	HIGH26.8x99th pct	LOW-1.41%16th pct	LOW1.19%35th pct
1996-2007 (mid)	2001	Fed Funds1.8%4th pct	Yield Curve3.4%95th pct	LOW1.6%23th pct	LOW1.8%4th pct	HIGH5.0%15th pct	HIGH3.4%76th pct	HIGH+3.37%95th pct	HIGH27.4x92th pct	LOW1.97%67th pct	LOW2.10%56th pct
1996-2007	2007	10Y Yield4.1%7th pct	Real 10Y-0.0%16th pct	MID4.1%71th pct	HIGH4.2%37th pct	MID4.1%7th pct	LOW-0.0%16th pct	HIGH+1.13%42th pct	HIGH23.9x74th pct	LOW1.23%61th pct	LOW0.11%23th pct
2008-2019 (mid)	2013	Fed Funds0.1%0th pct	10Y Yield2.9%6th pct	LOW1.5%21th pct	LOW0.1%0th pct	MID2.9%6th pct	MID1.4%38th pct	HIGH+2.83%86th pct	HIGH27.2x83th pct	LOW3.62%90th pct	LOW2.18%64th pct
2008-2019	2019	10Y Yield1.9%3th pct	P/E 5yr29.8x95th pct	LOW2.3%38th pct	LOW1.6%19th pct	LOW1.9%3th pct	LOW-0.5%12th pct	MID+0.34%23th pct	HIGH29.8x95th pct	LOW1.84%65th pct	LOW1.07%33th pct
2020-2031 (mid)	2024	P/E 5yr35.6x98th pct	Real EY 5yr-0.1%15th pct	LOW2.9%50th pct	HIGH4.5%53th pct	MID4.4%37th pct	MID1.5%40th pct	MID+0.14%15th pct	HIGH35.6x98th pct	LOW-1.44%16th pct	LOW-0.08%15th pct
Latest	Now	P/E 5yr36.8x98th pct	Real EY 5yr-0.2%15th pct	LOW2.9%54th pct	MID3.6%45th pct	MID4.4%38th pct	MID1.5%40th pct	HIGH+0.80%35th pct	HIGH36.8x98th pct	LOW-0.87%28th pct	LOW-0.15%15th pct

🔄 Cycle Observations

• 1960-1971: Transition from stability to inflation
• 1972-1983: High inflation and Volcker disinflation
• 1984-1995: Great Moderation begins
• 1996-2007: Tech boom and housing bubble
• 2008-2019: Financial crisis and ZIRP era
• 2020-2031: Pandemic, inflation return, rate normalization

📈 12-Year Cycle Framework

The 12-year cycle framework aligns with Jupiter's orbital period and has historically corresponded with major economic and market regime shifts. This view captures end-of-cycle conditions, showing how macro regimes evolve across longer structural periods compared to decade-based analysis.